分析：中国持美债巨增对经济货币影响大

choi

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BBC Chinese, Mar 1, 2011.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/zhongwen/simp/china/2011/03/110301_china_us_debt.shtml
("美国财政部周一（2月28日）大幅上调中国持有美国国债达1.160万亿，比去年12月底公布的数字大幅增加")

Note:
(a) Wes Goodman, China's Treasury Holdings Rose to Record $1.175 Trillion, U.S. Data Shows. Bloomberg, Mar 1, 2011.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-01/china-treasury-holdings-rise-to-1-16-trillion-in-december-u-s-data-show.html
(a record $1.175 trillion in October; $1.16 trillion at year-end, from the previous $891.6 billion)

, which cites
Preliminary Report on Foreign Holdings of U.S. Securities at End-June 2010. Press Center, US Department of Treasury, Feb 28, 2011.
http://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/tg1079.aspx

(b) 英国剑桥大学经济学讲师张炜博士
Dr Wei Zhang, Lecturer in Chinese Economy, Cambridge Univ.
http://www.ames.cam.ac.uk/general_info/biographies/chinese/Zhang.htm


--------------------------------Separately
(1) 中国通胀源头在于进出口失衡
http://www.voanews.com/chinese/news/20110228-china-forex-117112538.html
(凯投国际的中国经济学家威廉姆斯认为，易纲的话代表了中国国内温和派的意见")

(2) Damian Paletta, Geithner: Chinese Inflation Helping U.S. Compete. China Real Time, Feb 17, 2011.
http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2011/02/17/geithner-chinese-inflation-helping-us-compete/
(Treasury secretary Geithner's written testimony: "Because their inflation rates are so much higher than ours, it’s actually appreciating in real terms against the United States at a rate, if continued, of roughly 10% a year, a little more")

(3) Learning to Like Inflation; Higher inflation could help to rebalance China’s economy. Economist,  
Feb 17, 2011.
http://www.economist.com/node/18175493?story_id=18175493&CFID=163975008&CFTOKEN=82327323

Note:
(a) The Economist explains Balassa-Samuelson effect pretty well: "As low-income countries catch up with richer ones, faster productivity growth in the tradable-goods sector pushes up wages. Since labour is mobile, this in turn leads to higher wages in the non-tradable sector, where productivity growth is slower, so prices rise faster than in rich countries.
(b) The magazine stated, "Wage-driven inflation would also help to narrow China’s trade surplus.

Though wage increases contribute to inflation in China, I suspect other factors contribute more, such as food shortage and housing prices.
(c) The magazine observed, "The yuan has risen by only 4% [nominally, by exchange rate] against the dollar since early 2009, yet, according to calculations by The Economist, the yuan’s real exchange rate against the dollar (measured using unit labour costs in industry) has strengthened by 17% (see right-hand chart), because costs in China are rising much faster than in America.
(d) The Economist made two more observations:

"Runaway inflation is usually the result of fiscal excess, financed by printing money, or rigid labour markets, which produce a wage-price spiral that the central bank fails to stop.

"China is more like Japan and South Korea during their eras of rapid growth than any Latin American country. Over 15-year periods ending in Japan in 1972 and South Korea in 1996, GDP growth averaged around 9% a year and inflation averaged 5-6% without it accelerating out of control.

My comment: The "9%" means real GDP growth rate. The word "real"--as opposed to nominal-- signifies deduction of inflation.



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