Is China the Next Japan or the Next Mexico?

choi

本文通过一路BBS站telnet客户端发布

(1) Tom Orlik, China Risks a Mexican Standoff. Wall Street Journal, Sept 13, 2011 (title in print).
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904353504576566521762785388.html?KEYWORDS=Tom+Orlik

My comment: The analysis talks about Mexico, "China took export share and growth stalled." That is, China took export share of mexico and Mexico's growth stalled.

(2) Lingling Wei, China's New Lenders of Last Resort. Wall Street Journal, Sept 13, 2011
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904070604576515742512691416.html
(priovate guarantors "offer to help small-and-medium-size enterprises get bank loans by pledging to repay the loans borrowers default. They also lend directly to credit-starved businesses, or invest in them")


------------------------------Separately
(1) John Lyons, Dark Side of Brazil Boom. Wall Street Journal, Sept 13, 2011 (title in print)
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904716604576544722103262938.html

Quote:

"'Ever since I was a little girl I always heard Brazil was the country of the future. Now that the future is here, I am starting to fear it will be brief,' said Cynthia Benedetto, the chief financial officer of Brazil's flagship manufacturing firm, Embraer SA, the world's No 3 jet maker.

"Money glows easily into Brazil because it has a free-floating currency abd sophiscated stock, bond and derivative markets, unlike China. Indeed, many investors seeking exposure to China get it by investing in Brazil instead because its' a major seller of raw materials to the Chinese. Brazil is teh world's biggest seller of iron ore, beef, chicken, sugar and coffee. And it just made a new oil discoveries off its coast that could make it into a leading global producer of that as well.

My comment:
(a) The essence of the report is that investors pour money into Brazil, causing inflation and appreciation of its currency (rendering Brazil's products unable to compete abroad).
(b) The words "seeking exposure to China" means investors betting against China (in the belief China's economy will slow down or even implode) can not short sell for China does nto allow it. So they choose Brazil, say, as a surrogate.
(c) There is no need ot read the rest of the report.

(2) Louis Uchitelle, Is Manufacturing Falling Off the Radar?  New York Times, Sept 11, 2011.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/11/business/is-manufacturing-falling-off-the-us-radar-screen.html?pagewanted=all

My comment:
(a) This report is mainly about manufacturing in US, which inevitably compares that with China's. Please at least see the graphics.
(b) Pella, Iowa
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pella,_Iowa

(i) Vermeer Company
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vermeer_Company
(headquartered in Pella, Iowa; founded in Pella in 1948 by Gary Vermeer)
(ii) Pella
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pella
(capital of the ancient kingdom of Macedonia)

(c) CIA World Factbook (2011) shows "GDP - composition by sector":
(i) US:
"agriculture: 1.1%
industry: 22.1%
services: 76.8% (2010 est.)"
(ii) China:
"agriculture: 10.2%
industry: 46.9%
services: 43% (2010 est.)"

(iii) Taiwan:
"agriculture: 1.4%
industry: 31.1%
services: 67.5% (2010 est.)"

Then again, "manufacturing" is not the same as "industry" which includes, say, mining, in addition.

This time, I was pleasantly surprised to find the CIA World Gactbook no longer lists Taiwan at the bottom of a "country or location" but alphabetically.


--