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Mirror, Mirror, Whose Economy Is First to Go? EU, CN, US?

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发表于 11-13-2011 08:44:58 | 只看该作者 回帖奖励 |倒序浏览 |阅读模式
Ian Bremmer and cNouriel Roubini, Whose Economy Has It Worst?  With Europe, China and the US in crisis, the real question is which of them will stumble first. Wall Street Journal, Nov 13, 2011
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB ... SJ_Books_LS_Books_5

Quote:

"the longer-term future appears much brighter for the U.S. than for either Europe or China. America is still the leader in the kind of cutting-edge technology * * * Over time, these advantages will yield more robust economic growth.

"The U.S. also has a demographic advantage [thanks to higher birth rate and immigration that neither Europe  nor China has]. * * * By 2030, nearly 250 million Chinese will have passed the age of 65, and providing them with pensions and health care will be very costly.

My comment:
(a) kick the can down the road: defer, put something off until later
(b) The "essay" states, "Doubts about Italy, an economy too big to bail, will only add to the volatility."
(i) Italy was one of the G7 (Group of seven), which was expanded to G8, then G20.
(ii) Italy's GDP (PPP): $1.774 trillion; GDP (official exchange rate): $2.055 trillion (both 2010 est)
CIA World Factbook (2011)
(c) The essay does not say much that we do not already know.


---------------------Separately
(1) 亚太九国经济体合纵连横 中国“未收到邀请.” Chinese, Nov 13, 2011
http://www.voanews.com/chinese/n ... Meet-133767053.html
("亚太地区对于推动全世界经济的增长正发挥着越来越重要的作用,但美国和中国在这一地区的竞争却日渐凸显")

Note:
(a) The quotation alludes to the unthinkable before the 2007-2208 financial crisis; Europe is in decline and Asia-Pacific is rising economically.
(b) The report is incorrect when saying, "这项协议起初只包括智利、新西兰、文莱和新加坡四个经济规模较小的国家。随后,美国、澳大利亚、马来西亚、秘鲁和越南也加入其中."

Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tra ... conomic_Partnership
(The original agreement between the countries of Brunei, Chile, New Zealand and Singapore was signed on June 3, 2005, and entered into force on May 28, 2006. Six additional countries – Australia, Malaysia, Peru, Japan, United States, and Vietnam – are negotiating to join the group. On the last day of the 2010 APEC summit, November 14, leaders of the nine negotiating countries endorsed the proposal advanced by United States President Barack Obama that set a target for settlement of negotiations by the next APEC summit in November 2011. On the 11th November 2011 the Japanese Prime Minister, Yoshihiko Noda, announced negotiations to join.)

I think Wiki jumps the gun: it says "ix additional countries" are negotiating to join but fails to emphasize Japan declared its intent only on Nov 11, the eve of APEC meeting.

(c) Pres Obama's remarks in chronological order of the same day:
(i) Remarks by the President in the Meeting with Trans-Pacific Partnership. At Hale Koa Hotel, Honolulu, HI, Nov 12, 2011
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-pr ... pacific-partnership
("We are a Pacific nation and we are deeply committee to shaping the future security and prosperity of the Trans-Pacific region, the fastest-growing region in the world")
(ii) Remarks by President Obama at APEC CEO Business Summit Q&A. At Sheraton Hotel, Honolulu, HI, Nov 12, 2011.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-pr ... -business-summit-qa

This is the remarks both VOA and BBC talks about. Discussion of China, broached by the questioner rather than the other way around, suggests Pres Obaba was speaking his mind, as opposed to from a prepared statement. Still in my view, the portion of Q & A that dealt with China--there was only one--is well balanced. That portion is still too long to quote here, and you should read it yoursself. At the start of that portion, Mr McNerney, the querstioner, stated "you alluded to a lot of them just a minute ago -- intellectual property protections, adherence to the WTO, rules you mentioned." Up to this point, Pres Obama mentioned "intellectual" twice in general terms and "WTO" five times, the first four in the context of Russia's imminent accession to WTO. (Russia and Georgia just resolved their differences about Russia's entry. Georgia is already a member and WTO operates by concensus, so a single member can hold up Russia's entry.)

(iii) Remarks by President Obama and President Hu of China. At Hale Koa Hotel, Honolulu, HI, Nov 12, 2011.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-pr ... -president-hu-china

Nothing impotant.


(2) 奥巴马:中国应遵守国际贸易法则. BBC Chinese, Nov 13, 2011.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/zhongwen/si ... 3_obama_china.shtml
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