Goldman’s Ha Promotes 6% GDP Growth + Car Overcapacity Looms in CN

choi

(1) Richard Silk, Goldman Strategist’s 6% Call for China Growth. China Real Time Report, June 13, 2013
http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealti ... l-for-china-growth/
(Goldman Sachs China strategist Jiming HA 哈 继铭 in a June 10 research report)

Quote:

"Much of China’s star quality in the past decade has come from a massive surge in investment, reaching a record high of 47% of GDP last year * * * Goldman Sachs calculates that a fall in investment to more normal levels – say 40% of GDP – could bring China’s GDP growth down to an earthly 4.5% by 2020, averaging 5.7% over the next seven years.

"The argument that ultra-high levels of investment can’t be sustained, and are bound to cause a nasty crunch when they fall, isn’t a new one. Peking University finance professor Michael Pettis has long compared modern China to the former USSR, whose investment-powered high-speed growth terrified the West – until it didn’t. Starting in the late 1960s, productivity growth stalled. The country soon became a byword for stagnation.

(2) Michael Dunne, Not Just Solar: The China Car Industry Capacity Problem. China Real Time Report, June 12, 2013
http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealti ... will-this-play-out/
("China has the capacity to build twice as many solar panels as the world needs–so much so that the Middle Kingdom, according to European officials, has been dumping them overseas. So desperate is the drive to unload extra stock that the Chinese are selling at prices 88% below market value, according to EU trade officials. The EU approved punitive tariffs last week")