1Q15 CN's GDP Growth Rate (Official: 7.0%) Challenged; Estimates: 3.8-4.9%

choi

Mark Magnier, Experts Weigh Clues to Chinese Growth Puzzle. Wall Street Journal, Apr 27, 2015.
www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-true ... he-clues-1430071125

Quote:

"Capital Economics pegging the quarter at 4.9%, [CitiBank: 4.6%,] the Conference Board’s China Center at 4% and Lombard Street Research at 3.8%.

"The methodology [China's to tabulate its GDP growth rates, and GDP] often appears inconsistent or contradictory. Also, no one knows how China accounts for inflation when tabulating its gross domestic product. * * * China’s National Bureau of Statistics * * * doesn’t explain its methodology or inflation assumptions, and many of its calculations are difficult to reproduce, economists contend.

"Then there are the many ways China’s GDP figures appear to clash with other data points considered more difficult to manipulate. Economists point to the discrepancy between headline GDP growth and industrial production, often seen as a proxy for growth, which grew by 5.6% year to year in March—its lowest level since late 2008.

"There also is suspicion the shortcomings involve willful doctoring rather than data-collection problems common to India and other developing countries.

"How the agency obtains GDP figures is 'anybody’s guess,' said Hong Kong University of Science and Technology economics professor Carsten Holz, author of a paper on the quality of China’s GDP statistics, citing what he calls an 'atrocious lack of transparency.'  Suspicion centers on two major issues: How willful is the fudging, and does China have a second set of books so leaders know what’s 'really' going on?

"There is no evidence that the Communist Party has a separate set of books, said Harry X Wu, professor at Japan’s Hitotsubashi University and special adviser to the Conference Board.

My comment:
(a) There is no need to read the rest of the text. Do view the graphic, which is summarized in quotation 1.

(b)
(i) Capital Economics (founded in 1999 and based in London)
(ii)
(A) The China Center for Economics and Business, Conference Board, undated.
www.conference-board.org/chinacenter/
(B) Founded in 1916, Conference Board is presently based in Manhattan.
(C) 90 Years of Commitment. Conference Board, 2006 (under the heading "Historical Overview")
www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/TCB_HistoryTimeLine.pdf
("On May 5, 1916, in the Hotel Gramatan in Bronxville, New York, the National Industrial Conference Board (which changed its name to The Conference Board in 1970) became an official entity" but operated from Boston, Massachusetts)
(iii)
(A) Lombard Street Research was founded in 1989 by Tim Congdon and is based in London. Wikipedia
(B) Lombard Street, Londonen.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lombard_Street,_London(Length 260m; notable for its connections with the City's merchant, banking and insurance industries, stretching back to medieval times; It has often been compared with Wall Street in New York City

(c) atrocious (adj)
www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/atrocious

(d) Hitotsubashi University 一橋大学 (founded by Arinori MORI 森 有礼 in 1875; private; in Tokyo)
(i) Name origin of the bridge (and therefore, the neighborhood):
Our History in Pictures. Why Hitotsubashi ICS?
www.ics.hit-u.ac.jp/about/history/photos

Quote:

“1920, The original Alumni Building shown behind Hitotsubashi Bridge, site of the present day ICS campus

“The bridge [‘一ツ橋,’ pronounced ‘Hitotsubashi’] was renovated in 1925 and lies just one block from the current Hitotsubashi ICS campus

(A) Alumni Building = in Japanese: Josui Kaikan 如水会館
www.kaikan.co.jp/josui/aboutus/

The name 如水会 is unique to Hitotsubashi University; "「如水会」の名は、『礼記』の「君子交淡如水」[explaining the Chinese term in Japanese] に由来する。 * * * 命名者は渋沢 栄一": )a.wikipedia.org)
(B) ICS = Graduate School of International Corporate Strategy (ICS) (In Japanese: ICS, without kanji)
(ii) 伍 暁鷹 WU, Harry Xiaoying. Institute of Economic Research 一橋大学経済研究所
www.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/Japanese/faculty/wu.html
(教授; 1993 DPhil Waikato Univ (New Zealand), 1985 Master's and 1982 Bachelor's--both from 南開大学)