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Xi's Impossible Mission to Turn Around Chinese Economy

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发表于 12-10-2018 16:03:53 | 只看该作者 回帖奖励 |倒序浏览 |阅读模式
Edward Chancellor, Trade War and Other Troubles. China's leaders are trying to make the country rich before its population gets old. Given the country's problems, it looks as if they will fail. Wall Street Journal, Dec 10, 2018
https://www.wsj.com/articles/red ... troubles-1544396331
(book review on George Magnus, Red Flags; Why Xi's China is in jeopardy. Yale University Press, 2018)

Note:
(a)
(i) The review is available to the public.
(ii) The English and Scottish surname Chancellor meant "a secretary or administrative official, from Old French chancelier, Late Latin cancellarius 'usher (in a law court).' "

(b) "A recent estimate from Savills, an international property consultant, puts the aggregate value of Chinese property at around three times GDP, on a par with Japan's in the late stages of its bubble economy three decades ago. 'If you’re looking for a template for a financial crisis,' writes Mr Magnus, 'then on the surface, at least, China fits it well.' "
(i) Douglas Stone and William T Ziemba, Land and Stock Prices in Japan. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 7: 149, 149 (1993)
https://www.jstor.org/stable/2138448
(paragraph 1: "In late 1991, the total land value in Japan was estimated at nearly $20 trillion. This was more than 20 percent of the world's wealth, or to put it in some other contexts, about double the world's equity markets 9ie stock markets] or half again as large as the world's bond markets. Japanese land was then valued at about five times that of the United States; the land under the Emperor's Palace, which is about three-quarters of a square mile, was estimated to be worth about the same as all the land in California or in Canada. Real estate assets of Japanese corporations grew by $2.8 trillion from 1986 to 1988, an increase in valuation roughly equal to the size of the Japanese gross national product")

The first sentence talked about land only, not taking buildings into consideration. Combined with the last sentence, $20 trillion is about seven (7) times of Japan's GDP at the time.
(ii) William C Dudley, Evolving Consumer Behavior. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Jan 17, 2017 (this is a prepared speech given that day)
https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2017/dud170117
("Over the period from 1995 to 2006, the aggregate value of real estate owned by households and nonprofits nearly tripled, rising from $8.6 trillion to nearly $25 trillion")
(A) Mr Dudley was president and chief executive officer of New York Fed 2009-2018)
(B) The GDP of the United States for 2006 was $13.1 trillion.

(c) "Mr Magnus, a former investment-bank economist, has a penchant for acronyms and infelicitous phrases."
(i) felicitous (adj; Did You Know?): "very well suited or expressed : APT  <a felicitous remark>  <handled the delicate matter in a most felicitous manner>"
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/felicitous
(ii) The etymology of felicitous ultimately is traced to Latin adjective masculine/feminine/neuter fēlīx whose corresponding noun feminine is fēlīcitās (which led to English noun felicity).
(d)  Devil Take the Hindmost
https://www.phrases.org.uk/meani ... e-the-hindmost.html

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