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bwA, 中国的房价、经济、等等. Mitbbs.com, June 7, 2011.
http://www.mitbbs.com/article/Returnee/13212987_3.html
My reply will be divided into two postings:
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China was a great civilization. For the past half millennium, 子孫不成才, sqaundering the patrimony.
China was above rules and laws, Chairman Mao said. "It is unique."
Well, not necessarily.
Whether China will collapse or when, economically or politically, it is beyond me. Many pundits and investors have placed their bets--one way or the other, sometimes risking their own money. I will not deal with it today.
I am going to talk about invisible laws in nature, such as economic laws.
(1) You state, "国的情况是非常特殊的，因为有一个庞大无比的中央力量."
The second clause is sad but true. Sad, because it is a liability, not a strength. In 1978, China started dismantling communism, for central planning was good for nothing. Thirty years onward, China remains in the firm grip of central planners.
You also say, "将来计生委换块牌子，同样一帮人就能强迫你一定要生十个！别以为我在说笑话."
Like other hardliners, you ignore biological laws. See
Sharon Jayson, White Women More Likely to Be Childless, Census Says, USA Today, May 10, 2011
http://yourlife.usatoday.com/parenting-family/story/2011/05/White-women-more-likely-to-be-childless-Census-says/46992416/1
(2010 Current Population Survey)
Quote:
"The Census Bureau uses age 44 as the age for completion of childbearing. The data show that 20.6% of white women were childless, compared with 17.2% of black women, 15.9% of Asian women and 12.4% of Hispanic women.
"'One of the things that goes hand-in-hand with childlessness is high levels of education,' says D'Vera Cohn of Pew Research Center, who co-authored a report on childlessness last year. 'White women are more likely to be college-educated. That could be one key reason for the numbers you're seeing.'
Note: Kutztown University of Pennsylvania
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kutztown_University_of_Pennsylvania
(located in rural Kutztown, Berks County, Pennsylvania; one of fourteen schools that comprise the Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education (PASSHE); established in 1866)
(2) "而实体经济不景气和总体经济是否景气不相关。因为国家可以投资、大量投资。土木工程已经一百年没有大的技术进步，所有的技术基本国内都有。关起门来烧钢筋水泥足够保七保八。在现行银行法的框架下，现在这么作主要靠国际热钱涌入。哪天真的外贸'崩溃'、实体经济'崩溃'、热钱撤退，只需国务院某个办公室一纸行政命令改掉规则，弄个几万亿中国式量化宽松分分钟的事情。谁说人民币一定要美元担保."
I am clueless about China's "实体经济(民营经济)."
(a) I read economics textbooks as a hobby. Years ago I read macroecnomics, and one charpter said economic stimulus would not affect economic growth of a nation in the long term. I could not believe my eyes. Whenever recessions happened, governments in US and Taiwan pitched in fiscal and monetary stimuli. "If they do not work, why did they do it?" I wondered. Along came the Great Recession, and the (George W) Bush administration was bailing out banks and insuurance companies (a no-no for Republicans and 同路人 like me), followed by Pres. Barack Obama's economic stimulus and Quantative Easing 2 (QE 2).
Despite all, US economy remains uncertain today. Dollar is down and national debt up, thanks to quantative easing, which Fed chairman ben Bernanke siad in Mar that he would not try a third round when QE2 would end in June (this year).
(i) American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Recovery_and_Reinvestment_Act_of_2009#Congressional_Budget_Office_reports
(section 4 4 Congressional Budget Office reports)
(ii) Brian Riedl, Why Government Spending Does Not Stimulate Economic Growth: Answering the Critics. Heritage Foundation, Jan 5, 2010.
http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2010/01/why-government-spending-does-not-stimulate-economic-growth-answering-the-critics
Here is his biography.
http://economy.nationaljournal.com/contributors/Riedl.php
He may not write it best (he is no PhD), but you get the idea,
(b) What China has done in the three decades since 1978 is picking low-hanging fruits. None is left.
(3)
(a) At long last, you remark,
" 现在国家承认的(扣掉热钱)外储大概有一万亿到一万五千亿。看上去少，到时候自然会禁止进口美国大片(唱红歌看红片)、强力打击奢侈品贸易(这个难度很高，但是养兵千日、用兵一时，好过真的崩盘)。。。改开前十亿美元都没有，照样过得下去。再比如，看上去现在地方政府债务要出事、银行资本结构不健康(可怜10年前才剥离不良资产一次)，一个行政命令下去债务重组：甩掉包袱(比如事业单位人员下岗)、长债换短债，又不是没干过。
You are TOTALLY wrong. China will be the workshop of the world in the future, assembling products for export. (One penny here, two pennies there, and in no time out pops yet another millionaire in China.)
John W Miller, Chinese Companies Embark on Shopping Spree in Europe; Unlike America, the EU has no mechanism for subjecting takeovers to a national-security test. Wall Street Journal, June 7, 2011
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704355304576214683640225122.html
("The world's top exporting nation amassed $2.7 trillion in aggregate domestic savings by the end of 2009, a pot likely to grow sixfold by 2020, according to the World Bank. Experts are predicting a surge of overseas takeovers by Chinese companies over the next decade.")
"然後知生於憂患,而死於安樂也." 孟子˙告子下.
Amen.*
* amen (interjection; from Hebrew āmēn):
" —used to express solemn ratification (as of an expression of faith) or hearty approval (as of an assertion)"
www.m-w.com
(b) In fact the above newspaper, of the same day, mentions China in passing:
Steven Watson, Making It New in the New World; Is there a similarity between the austerity of an International Style skyscraper and the unadorned utility of a Wal-Mart store? Wall Street Journal, June 7, 2011
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303657404576357871848210478.html
(book review on Richard Pells, Modernist America; Art, music, movies, & globalization of American culture. Yale University Press, 2011)
The book is about 20th-century modernism (in Europe and US). It has this to say about the rising China: "(Today the heirs of the International Style are most likely to be found again in Europe, Japan or the Mideast, and China is where the most important buildings are being constructed. Ping and pong, the match goes on.)"
table tennis
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/table_tennis
(section 1 History: The game originated as a sport in Britain during the 1880s, where it was played among the upper-class as an after-dinner parlour game, then commonly known as "wiff-waff"; The name "ping-pong" was in wide use before British manufacturer J. Jaques & Son Ltd trademarked it in 1901)
Chinese from PRC come to Taiwan, and often are appalled (!) by the decaying buildings, everywhere they go. They come to New York and Toronto, and remain unimpressed when comparing with Shanghai and Beijing. Taiwan is frequently shake up by earthquakes (which in part are the causes and results--residents are reluctant to spend on it--of ramshackle buildings. More important, resources are focused on innovation and commercialization of world-class products that are assembled in China.
I say this to reinforce my point in (2).
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发表于 6-8-2011 11:55:29
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