US Navy Intel Chief Yesterday Dismissed J-20, DF-21D

choi

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(1) Spencer Ackerman, Navy Intel Chief Yawns at China’s New Jet, Missile. Wired, Jan. 5, 2011 (blog).
http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/01/navy-intel-chief-on-chinas-stealth-jet-zzzzzz/
(“'How proficient they [DF-21D missile]  are, what that level of probability is, we don’t know, and frankly I’m guessing that they don’t know,' Dorsett says")

Note: metric (n): "a standard of measurement <no metric exists that can be applied directly to happiness — Scientific Monthly>"  www.m-w.com

(2) Michael Wimes and Edward Wong, China’s Push to Modernize Military Is Beginning to Bear Fruit; Indications of an intent to be able to challenge the US in the Pacific; The Pentagon and China's neighbors are taking notice. New York Times, Jan. 6, 2010 (title in the print).
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/06/world/asia/06china.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=wong%20dorsett&st=cse

My comment: Please read only the last third of the report, starting with the sentence, "Still, a top Navy intelligence officer told reporters in Washinton on Wednesday [Jan. 5]."


----------------------Separately
(1) 五角大楼：不担心中国研发新式战机. VOA Chinese, Jan. 6, 2011.
http://www.voanews.com/chinese/news/20110106-china-defense-113008014.html

My comment:
(a) 五角大楼发言人戴维.拉潘上校. That is Dave Lapan. However, Department of Defense website4 does not have the transcript of his interview, suggesting his remark is not part of formal news briefing. My suspicion is confirmed. See (b).
(b) Jennifer Rizzo and Charley Keyes, Is China closer than thought to matching U.S. fighter jet prowess?  CNN, Jan. 6, 2011.
http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/01/05/china.us.fighter.jets/?hpt=T2
("Lapan said in an off-camera question session with journalists in his office")
(c) So far, Taiwan is the only that stakes its reputation on the line and FLATLY pronounces J-20 is a fake, on Jan. 5, 2011. See (2).

(2) 台国防部:中国不具备制造歼20战机能力. VOA Chinese, Jan. 5, 2011.
http://www.voanews.com/chinese/news/20100105-CHINESE-J20-FIGHTER-112929694.html
("*网络照片不是真的* 林郁方：是不是中共五代战机？是不是在试飞阶段？沈一鸣：报告，不是")

(3) 中国亮出航母杀手 美媒称低估中国军力. VOA Chinese, Jan. 6, 2011.
http://www.voanews.com/chinese/news/20110106-China-Military-Advances-Underestimated-113003844.html

Quote:

"台湾政治大学教授丁树范博士对美国之音说，从中国民航飞机的发展推测，它仍然在很大程度上依赖外国技术。

"丁树范说：'中国在这方面很神秘，究竟有什么进展我们的确不了解。不过我们能够看到，它投入了很多资源。从中国的民航科技发展看，目前做到的是设计飞机体，然后把买来的引擎等部件进行整合，就是说引擎等重要部分并非自己生产的。'

My comment:
(a) There is no need to read the rest.
(b) That is a viewpoint of Taiwanese professor (but not military). But he is right about China's lack of progress--RELATIVE TO the world powers, that is--in aviation technology--both military AND civilian.

Bradley Perrett, Growing Pain; China's state airlines' first orders for C919 are surprisingly small. Aviation Week, Dec. 22, 2010 (cover date).
("gross takeoff mass for the extended-range version [of C919] will be 99.3 tons (170,400 lb), almost the same as that of the 1980s-technology Airbus A320 while carrying only six more passengers over the same range, 3,000 nm")

This report, available online to subscribers only, was one of the cover stories about Zhuhai Air Show.  The nm stands for nautical mile.

Compare

台湾国防部：歼20相片“有问题.” BBC Chinese, Jan. 5, 2011.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/zhongwen/simp/china/2011/01/110105_taiwan_jet_doubt.shtml



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choi

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When I prepared the original posting, I coul dnot find transcript of Vice Admiral Dorsett. Three hours ago, Pentagon published an excerpt online.

Karen Parrish, Navy Intel Chief Discusses China’s Military Advances. Department of Defense, Jan. 6, 2011.
http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=62346

My comment:
(a) The following is what he had to say about J-20.

"In December, high-resolution photos surfaced of a Chinese aircraft that appears to be a large stealth fighter.

"China’s stealth aircraft, he said, likely is in early development. Based on pictures he has seen of the Chinese so-called J-20 stealth aircraft, Dorsett said, it’s not clear when it will be fully tested and operational.
(b) Dorsett sort of belittled China's navy.

"'In … late 2008, when they deployed a three-ship task group to the Gulf of Aden to conduct counterpiracy operations, that was a big step for them,' Dorsett added. 'Three ships to the Gulf of Aden, compared to what the U.S. Navy does on a daily basis, … you can’t contrast the two, because the difference is so great.'


【 在 choi 的大作中提到: 】
: (1) Spencer Ackerman, Navy Intel Chief Yawns at China’s New Jet, Missile. Wired, Jan. 5, 2011 (blog).
: http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/01/navy-intel-chief-on-chinas-stealth-jet-zzzzzz/
: (“'How proficient they [DF-21D missile]  are, what that level of probability is, we don’t know, an
: (以下引言省略...)

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