俄罗斯或联合美国对抗中国威胁

choi

本文通过一路BBS站telnet客户端发布


白桦, 担心利益受损害 俄关注胡锦涛访问美. VOA Chinese, Jan 19, 2011.
http://www.voanews.com/chinese/news/20110119-Russia-China-Us-Relations-114203399.html
("赫拉姆奇辛说，俄罗斯拥有这方面的经验教训。上个世纪90年代时，中国曾利用俄罗斯对抗美国。结果俄美关系恶化，但中国躲在背后避免破坏中美关系")

My comment:
(a) 俄新社, short for 俄羅斯國際新聞通訊社
RIA Novosti where RIA stands for Russian Information Agency and Novosti is Russian (in plural form) for new3s/tidings. See
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RIA_Novosti
(a Russian state-owned[1] news agency based in the capital Moscow; Founded 1941)
(b) 赫拉姆奇辛 is nobody, for China news sources, including China Daily, often cite him by the name 亚历山大·赫拉姆奇辛. I can not ascertain his name in English, but Chinese sources indicate something like Alexander (or aleksandr) Vladimirovich--but I can not find the last name.


------------------------------Separately
(1)  艾德, 美国民调：加强与中国关系 但贸易应强硬. VOA Chinese, Jan 19, 2011.
http://www.voanews.com/chinese/news/20110119-US-China-Survey-114209569.html

, which is translated from

William Ide, More Americans Looking for Washington to Strengthen Ties With China, But Get Tough on Trade. VOA, Jan 18, 2011.
http://www.voanews.com/english/news/asia/More-Americans-Looking-for-Washington-to-Strengthen-Ties-With-China-114178939.html

(2) 台军演练与胡锦涛访美和对台军售 (组图). VOA Chinese, Jan 19, 2011.
http://www.voanews.com/chinese/news/20110119-HU-JINTAO-VISITS-US-ARMS-SALE-TAIWAN-114196524.html

(3)
(a) Song Sang-ho, Seoul in talks with U.S. on longer missile range. Korea Herald, Jan 19, 2011.
http://www.koreaherald.com/national/Detail.jsp?newsMLId=20110119000772
("Under a 2001 revision to the initial agreement, which Seoul signed in 1979 with Washington, South Korea is banned from developing ballistic missiles with a range of over 300 kilometers. It also stipulates that a payload must weigh 500 kilograms or less")

(b) 韩国说正在寻求美国同意延长导弹射程. VOA Chinese, Jan 19, 2011.
http://www.voanews.com/chinese/news/20110119-KOREA-US-MISSILES-114194904.html

Note:
(i) Korea Herald
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korea_Herald
(a daily English-language newspaper founded in 1953 and published in Seoul)
(ii) 朝鲜日报 The Chosun Ilbo
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Chosun_Ilbo
(one of the major newspapers in South Korea. With a daily circulation of over 2,200,000; operates the Chosun.com news website, which also publishes web versions of the newspaper in English, Chinese, and Japanese; Founded 1920; Headquarters Seoul)

(4) 胡锦涛主席访美日程. VOA Chinese, Jan 19, 2011.
http://www.voanews.com/chinese/news/20100118-HU-JINTAO-SCHEDULE-114168729.html

(5) 童倩, 日美将举行防范中国的联合军演. BBC Chinese, Jan 19, 2011.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/zhongwen/simp/world/2011/01/110119_japan_us_drill.shtml
(1月20日起; 去年12月3日，日美举行大规模联合军演时，也包括了设想中国抢滩登陆钓鱼岛后日美联合夺岛的西南方面演习)

Note:
(a) Kumamoto Prefecture  
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kumamoto_Prefecture
(熊本県l literally means "bear root/origin", or "origin of the bear")
(b) The BBC report says "日本西南是包括了长崎县、熊本县、冲绳县宫古岛、石垣岛和中日有主权纠纷的钓鱼岛（日本叫尖阁诸岛）等东海敏感地区."

In Japanese, that is 日本の南西部. 西南 in Chinese = 南西 in Japanese = southwest in English.

(6) News release: Northrop Grumman-Built STSS Demonstration Satellites Complete On-Orbit Calibration, Ready for BMDS Tests. Northrop Grumman, Jan 19, 2011.
http://www.irconnect.com/noc/press/pages/news_releases.html?d=211247

--

choi

本文通过一路BBS站telnet客户端发布

A Chinese said, "这个很明显是美国的挑拨离间啊。"

Maybe. But * * *

(1)
(a) Geoff Dyer, Mongolia Makes Tracks to Escape Neighbour; The country is building ril lines to Russia and beyond to find new markets for its resources. Financial Times, Jan 20, 2011.
www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e81f0366-23ed-11e0-bef0-00144feab49a.html

(i) You need to register to read this report.
(ii) Summary: Mongolia would rather take four days/4,769km--and cost three times as much-- to transport coal to a sea port in Russia Far East than to, say, Qinhuangdao 秦皇岛. The planned rail lines, to connect to Russia’s Trans-Siberian network, "will use the Russian 1,520mm gauge, rather than the smaller standard used in China."
(iii) track gauge
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Track_gauge
(1,435 mm Standard gauge Europe, US, Canada, Mexico and China;
1,067 mm Cape gauge Taiwan and Japan)

(b) 平衡中国影响 俄罗斯蒙古密切关系. VOA Chinese, Dec 16, 2011.
http://www.voanews.com/chinese/news/20101216-Russia-Mongolia-Intensify-Cooperation-Blance-Chinese-Influence-111992304.html
("俄国官员游说蒙古按照俄国铁路标准，让俄罗斯参加蒙古铁路网建设。俄罗斯期望蒙古的煤炭等矿产资源能经过西伯利亚铁路运输，最后利用俄国远东港口对外出口")

(i) This report appeared in my Dec 16, 2011 posting titled 维基解密：美国阻止欧盟取消对华武器禁运.
(ii) Of course, Chinese can always cmfort themseles that this is yet another hatch job of US 挑拨离间.

(2) (1)(b) is action.

HOWEVER, Russia is sitting pretty, for its INACTION can wreak havoc on China's military-industrial complex. And if Russia so chooses, nobody, not even China, can blame it (Russia0.

For quite some time (years, to be exact), Russia has refused to sell fighter jet engines to China, because
(i) China has copied its fighters, as well as engines;
(ii) China sells copies in international arms market to compete against Russia.

In case Russia continues to adopt this stance--particularly if it also withhold parts--after a few more years the entire air force of China is grounded.

But probably there is no need to wait that long before effects appear.

Here is an imminent scenario.

China is heralded to debut this year the Varyag, the half-finished Soviet-era aircraft carrier.

Without engines for jet fighters suited for an carrier, an aircraft carrier is just another ship. And there is no indication that Russia will supply any engine.

(3) The first test flights of China's J-20 are said to employ two engines: Russian AL-31FN and indigenous WS-10A, which is another sign that China did not obtain Russia's cooperation on engines.

(i) Sukhoi PAK FA
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_PAK_FA
(2.2 Engines: The [pair of Saturn] 117S (AL-41F1A) is a major upgrade of the AL-31F)

(4)  
(a) It is not entirely impossible that Russia will come out against China.
(i) Soviet Union contemplated surgical strike against nuclear installments of China;
(ii) Diary of Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek disclosed that Soviet Union persuaded Taiwan into an alliance, in a land war against China.

(b) Hussein Wanted Soviets to Head off US in 1991; An aapeal to Moscow: 'Our nation and army are confused.' New York Times, Jan 20, 2011 (title in the print).
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/20/world/middleeast/20archive.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=hussein&st=cse

My comment: The translated transcript can be found in the left column of this web page, under the headig "Related": "Document: Inside the Iraqi Command."


【 在 choi 的大作中提到: 】
: 白桦, 担心利益受损害 俄关注胡锦涛访问美. VOA Chinese, Jan 19, 2011.
: http://www.voanews.com/chinese/news/20110119-Russia-China-Us-Relations-114203399.html
: ("赫拉姆奇辛说，俄罗斯拥有这方面的经验教训。上个世纪90年代时，中国曾利用俄罗斯对抗美国。结果俄美关系恶化，但中国躲在背后避免破坏中美关系")
: (以下引言省略...)

--
※ 来源:．一路BBS http://yilubbs.com [FROM: 129.10.0.0]

※ 修改:．choi 于 Jan 21 14:54:01 修改本文．[FROM: 129.10.0.0]