Rethink the Book 'The Population Bomb'

choi

William McGurn, The Children Of Men.
Wall Street Journal, Feb 21, 2013
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB ... 01110385242932.html
(book review on Jonathan V Last, What to Expect When No One's Expecting; America's coming demographic disaster. Encounter, 2013)

Quote:

"Even before Paul Ehrlich's 1968 best seller, 'The Population Bomb,' our enlightened classes have been telling us that growing populations are bad * * * From today's vantage point, it is hard to recall the fevered advance of the gospel of overpopulation, or the way it fixed itself in the firmament of institutions like the World Bank.

"His argument in 'What to Expect When No One's Expecting' is summed up in three broad propositions. First * * * Second, that most attempts to reverse this trend have failed.

"But China isn't really Mr Last's great concern. America is. He points out that, after decades of harsh policies discouraging and preventing births, China's total fertility rate—the number of babies an average woman will have over her lifetime—is down to 1.54, well below the replacement level of 2.1. That's not surprising. What is surprising is that for white, college-educated American women (his proxy for the middle class), it is only 1.6.

"Why should we care? For one thing, declining fertility rates threaten entitlements such as Social Security and Medicare as more retirees come to be supported by fewer workers. (Mr Last tartly notes that these programs were 'conceived in an era of high fertility.') An older America would also likely have a harder time projecting military power without the large numbers of young people that such a commitment requires—or the tax base to pay for it.

"Among the many virtues of this slim, sprightly volume is that the author offers no easy solutions.

Note:
(a) Paul R Ehrlich
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_R._Ehrlich
(1932- ; an American biologist with Stanford University)
(i) Not to be confused with Paul Ehrlich
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Ehrlich
(1854-1915; German physician who earned a 1908 Nobel prize in medicine)
(ii) The German surname Ehrlich is "from Middle High German erlich ‘respected’, ‘honorable.'"
(b) fix (vt)" "AFFIX, ATTACH"
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/fix
(c) firmament (n):
"1: the vault or arch of the sky : heavens
* * *
3: the field or sphere of an interest or activity <the international fashion firmament>"
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/firmament
(d) June Cleaver
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_Cleaver
(the mother in an American television sitcom Leave It to Beaver (1957-1963); often invoked as the archetypal suburban parents of the 1950s; June is dedicated to her family; her interests outside the home are social events like weddings or school events like meetings and plays)
(e) For natalist, see natalism (n):
"an attitude or policy favoring or encouraging population growth"
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/natalism